Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Statistics

Well, I've had PokerTracker now for over a month, and since I bought it, my account has gone from $150 to $465 and back down to $420 where it currently is now. I've played 16,935 hands in the past month (sounds like a lot, and it is, but most of the time, I'm playing multiple tables at a time). Last night I was checking out the stats of my play and I've found some interesting things. Here are the ten hands that I've won the most money on...

1. 88 (+$261.35 - dealt 82 times)

I don't know why this is my most profitable hand. I know at the beginning I won a couple of monster pots with pocket 8's - once I flopped K88 and beat pocket kings for a huge pot. But I play eights like any small pair - limp and see the flop for as cheap as possible and if I don't flop a set or 3 unders, I fold. That way, I'll either win a nice pot, or lose a pot I only invested one bet into. Still, or some reason, I've hit more than my share of sets with pocket 8s. But hey, I'm not complaining!

2. AA (+$229.35 - dealt 88 times)

This is the hand you'd expect to see at the top, but not for me. It's slowly gaining on the pocket 8s, and I'm thinking before too long, it will be my most profitable hand, as it should be. I obviously raise and re-raise with this hand preflop, but I will say this - I have a hard time folding this hand when I know that I'm beat. If I raise preflop with Aces and bet the flop and then somebody raises, I tend to still think my Aces are good. And sometimes they are, but a lot of times, I pay off a lot of better hands with Aces. Therefore, I win some nice pots, but I also lose pots where I've invested quite a bit of money, unlike the middle pairs, where I only lose small amounts. I'll still take Aces every time though.

3. QQ (+$197.95 - dealt 66 times)

This hand is more profitable for me than KK, and it really makes a lot of sense to me. When I play Queens, I always raise and re-raise preflop, but I know they're vulnerable. If any overcard comes on the flop, I'm probably behind, so I can fold and feel good about my decision. It's an easy hand for me to get away from. When I lose big pots with Queens, it's usually to a set or a late-made straight or flush. But it's still a premium hand which will win me a great deal of pots when I flop a set or the board shows 5 unders.

4. KK (+$172.20 - dealt 69 times)

This hand, as far as premium hands go for me, is a trouble hand. I play it like all the other premium hands preflop - raise and re-raise as much as I can - but this hand has the worst qualities of Aces, as well as the worst qualities of Queens. Much like Queens, if an overcard comes on the flop (in this case, only an Ace), I assume I'm beat, but for some reason, just like Aces, I can't seem to fold these guys as easily. Lately, I've made a concerted effort to fold this hand whenever an Ace is flopped, and I think it's saved me some money lately. But I know earlier, I lost some heavily invested pots when my Kings would call to the river, just to get beat my Ace rag with an Ace on the board. If I can keep this up, I would expect KK to be more profitable than QQ in the near future.

5. 99 (+$167.20 - dealt 81 times)

This hand I play exactly like 88, but it's about $100 less profitable. This just goes to show that poker involves a lot of luck. If you hit the flop, you'll look like a genius as you rake in the chips. If you don't, you'll simply fold and watch somebody else take it down. 88 has simply hit more flops for me than 99. Period. That's the only difference between the two hands. But this is still my 5th most profitable hand, more so than some other hands you'd expect to see up here, so don't feel bad for the 9s, they're doing just fine for me, thank you very much!

6. ATo (+$136.15 - dealt 173 times)

I'm a little surprised to see this hand here. I'm sure variance plays a little part - winning a few big pots will skew the expected results of a certain hand. But upon closer look, this makes some sense to me. I don't play ATo any certain way all the time. I play this way differently depending on certain factors - If I'm in early position at a loose table, I'll fold with it. If I'm in late position and nobody's entered the pot, I'll raise with it. That's what makes it so profitable for me. I don't have any preconceived expectations with this hand. If I think I'm ahead, I'll play it strong and if I think I'm behind, I'll fold. Optimally, every hand would be played this way, but sometimes, it's hard to lay down a monster hand when it's been cracked. This one is easy to lay down, which optimizes its profit.

7. AKo (+$130.60 - dealt 165 times)

This is another example of one of those monster-type hands that I stay in with too long. I play it like Aces preflop, raising and re-raising as much as I can. But when the flop comes and it's 3 unders, I tend to call a bet, and even sometimes a raise, with nothing but a draw. If I can turn a King or Ace, I'm good most of the time. But if I don't, I find myself invested for 3 or 4 bets in a pot where I have nothing. Again, I'll take this hand every time, but just getting dealt AKo doesn't promise anything - it is what it is - a drawing hand. A very strong drawing hand, but still a drawing hand.

8. JJ (+$126.00 - dealt 76 times)

JJ is a hand that I play strong pre-flop, just like all the bigger pairs. But after the flop, I play it just like a middle pair. If I flop a set or 3 undercards, I'll bet it strong. But if there's an overcard and somebody comes out and bets, I'll quickly fold. This hand sees flops with 3 unders much more than pocket 8's or pocket 9's, so I'm playing in more of those pots with this hand. That's a scary hand to play, as the overcard on the turn or river can (and usually does) beat me. I'm thinking that's why this hand isn't as profitable as those other middle pairs. But I can't fold JJ on a 3-6-T flop, can I?

9. AKs (+$94.00 - dealt 52 times)

This hand would be a lot higher on the list if I had been dealt it more. Of all the top ten hands, this one I have been dealt the least. But only the top 4 have a bigger per-hand profit margin than AKs. And that's obvious - this hand can make the nut straight, the nut flush, and TPTK, all of which win nice sized pots. And like AKo, it'll beat A-rag when an A comes on the flop, which on Poker Stars is huge, because it seems like everybody plays any Ace on that site. Of course it sucks when their A6 sees a 3-6-A flop - I can't and won't get away from that hand. But although it happens sometimes, the odds of it happening aren't very good, which makes AKs a great hand to have.

10. JTs (+$81.90 - dealt 61 times)

I like playing JT. Any time it makes a straight, it's the nut straight. Add to that the fact that it's suited, and you've got a really fun hand to play. Again, it's one of those hands that I play cautiously. I've folded this preflop, I've raised with it preflop - it's dependent on those same factors. However, this is a hand that seems to catch at least something on the flop. If the flop is all high cards, you've got a straight draw. If it's all low, you've got two overs. If it's in the middle, you've got either a pair or a straight draw. And the added benefit of being suited increases it's chances. It's a hand that if I see a flop, I usually see a turn and a river too, unless somebody's betting tells me I'm beat.

I'll post my top ten losing hands tomorrow - hope this is interesting reading. I know it isn't for some, but oh well - just live with it! :)

Today's trivia question...

If you added the number of major league baseball teams in California, Maria Sharapova's seed at the Austrailian open, and the number that Drew Brees wears on his Saints jersey, what number would you come up with?

Good luck!!

11 comments:

gordo said...

Does it tell you how you do against J-10?

wittdog said...

How about 19?

Jeff said...

Yeah, Like I am going to anything about sports. Then you ask a question about multiple sports.

Here is my answer 13.53552632

Am I right.

You wouldn't be addicted to poker would you. I was not also I would be looking up the G.A. Hotline for you.

gadzooks64 said...

For a while there PT was in love with 33. I hit some many huge hands with it for a long time but that's tapered off now.

I have no clue what that number is but I hope it's imaginary.

tucker said...

Mikey's on a roll!!

Gordo 3
Susie 2
Wittdog 2
Kriss 1

Everybody Else 0

tucker said...
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tucker said...
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tsheets said...

The thing about pokertracker on full tilt is that it is a real pain in the butt to use it for tournaments. You either have to manually enter every player and their finish position or use a 3rd party utility to write out a file and then import that information. Then, when they update something, the 3rd party software has to be updated as well.... At least that's how it used to be....haven't checked for a while.

Also, when I started playing other games (I only had the hold 'em) version, it was useless.

So, I lost interest in it.

tucker said...

PokerTracker still only works for hold 'em, so that kind of sucks, but it's pretty easy to use for tournaments. After a tournament is over, I just request a tournament history for Poker Stars and they e-mail me the synopsis of the tournament (how many players, what stakes, who finished where, etc.) Poker Tracker then reads my e-mail and imports the info for me.

I use Realtime while I actually play, and the one thing that I can't figure out with this program is that when I'm in a multi-table tournament and they have me switch tables, the software can't recognize it. If I start on table 5 and get switched to table 1, I'll still have the stats on all the table 5 players and no stats for the people on my table. Other than that, the program rocks!

gadzooks64 said...

Yeah, Realtime has that problem on Stars. I haven't noticed it on Full Tilt.

I think I closed and restarted it and it eventually caught up. I might be wrong about that since I don't play much Stars and that was a while ago.

Realtime is now a part of Holdem Manager which I think is also free but I don't think he's going to post any independent updates.

Anonymous said...

Tucker Smucker!

Quick question for you, is Wittdog my brother? I just cant imagine anyone else going by that name! haha
By the way, love your new picture but hate the jersey! lol

Catfish Hunter